Forecasts of Use of Long-Term Services and Supports, the Aging Population, and Dementia Prevalence through 2040 in Washington State

This report provides technical details about the methods used to produce a series of Area Agency on Aging (AAA) and county long-range forecasts of:

• Utilization of Medicaid-funded in-home, community residential, and skilled nursing facility services benchmarked to April 2024 utilization rates;
• Persons meeting demographic criteria related to age, income, language, race/ethnicity; and
• Prevalence of disability and dementia.

For these forecasts, we combined population projection data maintained by the Office of Financial Management (OFM) with other data sources containing county or state estimates of prevalence or service utilization. First, we describe the current methods and then discuss the differences from previous years’ methodology. For reference, a table containing Washington State level forecasts of the measures developed in this study is presented at the end of this technical report.